In the past I’ve been OK at predicting the major awards (about an 80% average, which I understand is pretty high), but the past year and this year have been extra hard to predict. The academy has been getting less predictable in their nominations and fewer prestige films are being made in favor of comic book films and blockbusters ranging from things like National Treasure to The Da Vinci code (heh - yes those are from 2005; and yes that is limited range). Everyone knows the teen comedies and Horror remakes are where the real money is made ($10M movie, $15M marketing - $45M box office).

Anyway, here is my stab at predicting the major awards. Guessing ‘original make-up effects is purely a hail-Mary guess, so I just do not bother. My picks (***) are based on what I think will happen, not my favorites. Other than Pan’s Labyrinth and Little Children, I don’t have much ‘rooting interesting’ in most of categories. I’ll say this though, the BEST DIRECTION in a motion picture is certainly Alfonso Cuaron for Children of Men, and he was not even nominated.

BEST PICTURE
***BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN

BEST DIRECTING
Alejandro González Iñárritu, BABEL
***Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
Paul Greengrass, UNITED 93

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin – LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley – LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou – BLOOD DIAMOND
***Eddie Murphy – DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg – THE DEPARTED

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
***Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL

BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
***Peter O’Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whittaker - LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

BEST ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz – VOLVER
Judi Dench – NOTES ON A SCANDAL
***Helen Mirren – THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep – THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet – LITTLE CHILDREN


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
***CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE

BEST ART DIRECTION
DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
***PAN’S LABYRINTH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN’S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE BLACK DAHLIA
***CHILDREN OF MEN
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN’S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
***DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE QUEEN

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
***AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY


BEST FILM EDITING
***BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
UNITED 93

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
***PAN’S LABYRINTH
WATER

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
***LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
***BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN’S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN